President Trump declared the tentative US-Iran ceasefire "over" on Wednesday during a press conference at the NATO summit in Ankara, threatening fresh strikes and sending crude prices sharply higher, ZeroHedge reports. The remarks landed as Tehran renewed drone and missile attacks on nearby American allies Kuwait and Bahrain, reviving fears of a full-scale return to conflict.

What Just Happened

Speaking to reporters just before a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump said he would "probably hit Iran tonight" and that he considered the ceasefire finished. He said the US had "a score to settle" and floated the possibility of taking out "higher level targets" and even taking over Kharg Island, while insisting the situation was "not a war" but "the denuclearization of Iran."

Per the reporting, the escalation followed Iranian missile and kamikaze drone attacks on several merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, which were countered by overnight US strikes. Trump said US forces had "knocked out 28 boats last night" and warned more would likely be targeted. Hours before, the US Treasury revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Tehran to sell oil, reversing a key element of the interim deal.

"I'll give a little warning: We're going to hit them hard tonight." — President Donald Trump, at the NATO summit in Ankara

The Numbers

  • Brent crude front-month futures jumped 6% to $78.63 a barrel in European trade.
  • West Texas Intermediate rose 6.2% to $74.85 a barrel.
  • Dutch TTF natural gas benchmark climbed 4.8% to 49.04 euros per megawatt-hour.
  • US strikes reportedly "knocked out 28 boats" overnight, with more expected.
  • Three tankers were targeted by Iran, prompting the Joint Maritime Information Center to upgrade the Hormuz risk rating to "Severe."

Why Oil Prices Could Rise

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, and renewed attacks on shipping there directly threaten the flow of crude that transits the waterway. With the ceasefire declared dead and the Treasury pulling Iran's sanctions waiver, both supply at risk and the geopolitical risk premium priced into every barrel move higher.

Kingdom Exploration's read: when confidence in the Strait's reopening erodes, the market rebuilds a war premium fast — and the shift of the forward curve into backwardation, where near-term contracts trade at a premium to later-dated ones, signals traders are again willing to pay up for immediate barrels.

Kpler's Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk, noted in the reporting that "every renewed attack on commercial shipping further erodes confidence in the Strait's reopening," adding that if reopenings are assumed to be temporary, "freight rates remain elevated, insurance costs remain high and fewer vessels are willing to re-enter the Gulf."

UBS oil and gas analyst Dominic Ellis wrote that markets "were too quick to buy into the de-escalation narrative," and that the latest developments "may lead to more realistic expectations on the return to normalcy and a slightly higher range for oil in the near term." He cautioned, however, that a spike above $100 a barrel remains unlikely even amid further tit-for-tat strikes, citing a sustained drop in Chinese crude imports.

What to Watch Next

  • Whether Trump follows through on the threatened strikes and how Iran responds.
  • Vessel transit data through Hormuz — Bloomberg tracking shows East-West traffic falling sharply while West-East holds steady.
  • Insurance and freight rates for Gulf shipping, which climb as risk stays elevated.
  • The status of ongoing negotiations, which Trump said he would allow to continue even as he called them a waste of time.
  • Whether the backwardated forward curve deepens as traders bid for prompt supply.

Reporting sourced from ZeroHedge. Developing story.

About Kingdom Exploration

Kingdom Exploration LLC is an Oklahoma-based oil and gas exploration company. Learn more at kingdomexploration.com.