December 19, 2025 "” Chinese state-owned refiner Sinopec has released a stunning forecast: China's oil consumption will peak by 2027 as demand for diesel and gasoline weakens. The world's largest oil importer may be approaching its demand ceiling"”a seismic shift for global energy markets.
Sinopec 2027 Peak Demand Forecast
- Peak year: 2027
- Diesel demand: Already weakening
- Gasoline demand: Declining as EVs surge
- China global demand share: ~16%
- Current imports: ~11 million bpd
- EV sales 2025: 45%+ of new cars
What's Driving China's Demand Decline?
Several structural factors are converging to cap China's oil appetite:
Market Implications: Bulls vs Bears
Bearish Implications
- World's largest demand growth engine slowing
- Marginal barrel demand growth disappears
- Long-term forecasts must be revised down
- OPEC+ loses key demand driver
Bullish Counter-Arguments
- India picking up demand growth baton
- Petrochemical feedstock demand still rising
- Peak demand ≠zero"”still 16M+ bpd
- Near-term supply disruptions dominate
Why This Matters Now
Sinopec is not just any forecaster"”it's China's largest refiner and a state-owned entity with direct visibility into domestic demand patterns. When Sinopec signals peak demand, global oil markets must pay attention.
This forecast adds weight to the IEA's projection of a significant global oil surplus by 2026, though near-term supply disruptions from Russia and Venezuela could still drive prices higher before the demand ceiling becomes binding.
Data sources: Sinopec Annual Energy Outlook 2025, IEA, China Passenger Car Association
