Geopolitical tensions1 have long been a significant driver of volatility in global oil markets. Events such as conflicts, sanctions3, and diplomatic disputes can lead to disruptions in oil supply2, affecting prices and market stability. For instance, the recent tensions in the Middle East have led to concerns over supply routes, causing fluctuations in oil prices. Additionally, sanctions on major oil-producing countries can limit their export capabilities, further tightening global supply. These geopolitical factors, combined with other market dynamics, underscore the complex nature of the oil market and its susceptibility to external influences.