Maritime intelligence firm Windward reports that two of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints he Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb tare now both effectively closed to tanker traffic, an unprecedented double disruption to seaborne crude flows. The assessment, published within the last hour, escalates a situation that already saw Hormuz exports collapse.

Related coverage: Hormuz Oil Exports Crash to 1 Million BPD, Whalesbook Reports

What Just Happened

According to Windward, both the Strait of Hormuz the gateway for Gulf crude exports tand Bab el-Mandeb the southern entry to the Red Sea and Suez route tare now effectively shut to tanker traffic. That means the two primary maritime arteries connecting Middle East oil to global markets are simultaneously constrained, a scenario energy markets rarely contemplate outside of worst-case planning.

This new development builds on our earlier reporting that flows through Hormuz had already crashed to roughly 1 million barrels per day. Windward's latest read indicates the disruption has widened to a second chokepoint, compounding the pressure on tanker movements.

The Numbers

Windward frames both corridors as "effectively shut" to tanker traffic. Concrete export figures reported in our prior coverage placed Hormuz throughput at about 1 million barrels per day ta fraction of its normal volume. Windward has not published a specific barrel figure for Bab el-Mandeb in this assessment; the firm's characterization is that tanker traffic through the strait is no longer moving in any meaningful capacity.

  • Strait of Hormuz: effectively shut; prior exports reported near 1 million bpd
  • Bab el-Mandeb: effectively shut to tanker traffic
  • Source: Windward maritime intelligence

Why Oil Prices Could Rise

The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important oil transit point in the world, and Bab el-Mandeb is a key gateway for cargoes heading to Europe via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. With both corridors constrained at the same time, the volume of crude and refined product physically able to reach market falls sharply, and rerouting options narrow.

When two chokepoints close together, the market prices in a large risk premium. Vessels that would normally transit Bab el-Mandeb face lengthy diversions around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and cost to voyages. Cargoes stranded behind a closed Hormuz have no easy alternative at all, given how much Gulf export capacity depends on that single passage. The combination tightens available supply, lifts freight and insurance rates, and can drive crude benchmarks higher as buyers scramble for barrels that can actually be delivered.

Kingdom Exploration's read: a simultaneous disruption at Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb removes the market's usual pressure valve tthere is no obvious "other route" when both are down, and that is precisely the condition under which price spikes accelerate.

What to Watch Next

Key signals in the coming hours and days: whether Windward and other maritime trackers confirm the duration of the closures, any official statements from Gulf exporters or shipping authorities, changes in tanker rerouting toward the Cape of Good Hope, and moves in war-risk insurance premiums. Watch also for how much of the affected volume can be offset by spare capacity or alternate pipelines, and for any escalation that would keep both corridors closed rather than reopening them quickly.

Reporting sourced from Windward. Developing story.

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